Stimulative aspect of fiscal plan could be at least partially offset by rates

Long end of Tsy curve faces supply/demand imbalance

As tariff fears have moved to the background, a different economic concern has moved to the foreground-growing fiscal deficits and the impact on interest rates. Public debt-to-GDP stood at 98% last year and is set to rise further. We discuss why deficits have captured the market's attention today and whether growth aspects of the budget plan could be offset by the higher interest rates. While the boost to growth isn't large, certain groups should see benefits. This includes senior citizens, also business investment may benefit later in the year, especially if tariff uncertainty has peaked. The US Rate Strategy team believes that a mismatch of demand and supply of Treasuries at the long end of the curve could lead to more cheapening of Treasuries, meaning that the 30Y yield could move further above swap rates. In theory, the recent Moody's downgrade of the US' credit rating could lead Congress to a more balanced budget and but on that, our guests were skeptical.

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